Afternoon,

A tale of 2 halves of the day. The first half was orderly and trended and the second half was not trending and very volatile with big wicks and and bars. The Russell 2000 opened flat from yesterday’s close and trended down to the 61% fib area as measured from pivot yesterday afternoon at 13:57 pm CST (Point 1) to the high pivot on the first bar this morning (Point 2). At that point, the market turned around and gave a nice bobber trade set-up at 9:24 am CST with an entry of 704.00. The pivot was over 1.50 points away so the trade had room to at least get to a point for a break even trade. The trade made the objective. The market rallied strongly, reaching the 161% fib level, traded sideways for a hour or so before breaking down. There was a potential bobber set-up at 11:09 am CST. The problem was Woodies Pivot was right below entry point. As I have seen the Pivot stop price on the spot, I passed on the trade. Here is the chart for trade 1.

Trade 1

Click on chart to enlarge.

The market continued straight down with only one pull back (trader’s trick set-up) that I did not take. Some of my reader’s might have considered taking the trade. The reason is that the market had moved down around 5 points before having the set-up. The farther away the price is from the 56 EMA, the more risk there is in the trade set-up. After the trending morning the market went into a very choppy, big bar, big tails period. You can tell a choppy market by the fact that there are many of pivots and you have one bar up and one down and the bars overlap. I have learned to not try to trade this type of market.  Here is the chart for the potential entry and the choppy market.

Potential Trade and Choppy Market

Click on chart to enlarge.

Some of my readers probably tried to trade each and every bump but I have decided to  that wears me out and uses up much of my psychological capital. So I did not trade the last half of the day.

So for today, there was only 1 valid set-up and 1 winning trade for a net profit of $200, ignoring slippage and commissions.

As I have stated, many of you probably traded more than I did today. I just feel that there are times to be aggressive and there are times to be less aggressive. Once a trader decides that they do not have to trade, the faster their results will improve. Remember, cash is a position.

So after a big day yesterday, I was not surprised that today would not present as many opportunities. I hope that better fishing continues tomorrow.

Best regards,

Ron

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell. 
There is a risk in any investment